With tech stocks falling and layoffs across the board, I’ve been thinking a lot about where the tech industry is headed. As someone in the industry, I’d rather not see it go belly up, but murmurs online have me on edge. Some folks claim that the next recession will be like the 2001 bubble bursting, with Fucked Companies left and right. But I’m a bit more optimistic, considering that today's world is much different than it was in 2001.
In fact, it’s crazy to look back and think how much the world has changed, especially with respect to technology. Being a younger millennial, I still vaguely remember a time pre-Internet, but I definitely remember the pre-smartphone days. Growing up, I never would have imagined myself in the tech industry. It’s hard to imagine what the future will hold, but maybe looking back 20 years can clue us in.
Post-Bubble
I was 8 years old when the tech bubble burst, and I don’t remember it at all. In elementary school, “tech” existed in the background. Book reports were handwritten, usually in cursive. We learned how to use the Dewey Decimal System to find books at the library. I have hazy memories of using a computer, like the look and sound of Windows 98 and Clippy. I mostly remember video games, from the SNES and N64, to making the pivotal choice between the PS2 and the Gamecube (I was team PS2).
In middle school, I started using computers a bit more. We would use them in computer labs (it’s funny to think of computers in a “lab” like a biology or chemistry lab). Most of my exposure to them was playing educational games like Zoombinis, the Oregon Trail, and Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing. At home, my family eventually upgraded to Windows XP. I remember eventually writing school papers, not on Google Docs or Microsoft Word but on WordPerfect. Before Google Maps, I remember printing MapQuest directions for my mom to drive me to friends’ houses (we never bought a Garmin GPS).
I remember when bookstores were everywhere (when Amazon only sold books). I remember when Netflix mailed movies (I used GameFly for mailed video games). At the time, the only Apple product I interacted with was the iPod Mini. I remember my mom had a Nokia cellphone that I would use to play snake. Later in middle school, I eventually got a cellphone, a flip phone I rarely used except for emergencies. I remember playing a lot of Runescape with friends and going on Miniclip to play flash games or Newgrounds to watch flash animations. YouTube became popular, where hits like Charlie the Unicorn and Potter Puppet Pals were popular with my class. I chatted with friends on AIM, and in 2008 we all briefly decided to make MySpace pages.
Early iPhone Days & “Peak” Tech
The iPhone was launched in 2007, and I remember the early days of the App Store on my iPod Touch in 2008. The early App Store was mostly filled with toy apps, like a Gun App and Lighter App. Doodle Jump and Angry Birds were some of the most popular games, and App icons still ported the skeuomorphic design. In high school, I eventually traded in my flip phone for an iPhone which was also where I got started with Facebook. I remember the early days when it felt much more like a tight-knit community. Facebook walls were filled with posts from friends, not ads, and we spent our time playing Zynga’s Farmville and Mafia Wars. Video gaming become much more connected, with nights spent playing games online with friends on Xbox Live.
High School was also where I encountered Mac computers for the first time. I remember Macs feeling completely foreign to me, unlike the Windows machines I grew up with. But this was where I spent time creating my first Gmail account and continuing to explore the internet’s early meme culture. I remember friends running Project 64 to play N64 games, and using StumbleUpon to find interesting new websites. I started using Pandora to listen to music while I would work.
While tech was growing, it never really hit me as I left high school for college. Taking CS 106A at Stanford, Mehran Sahami shared a slide showing the vast number of computer science jobs compared to the number of candidates (along with Karel the Robot). But I still considered myself a Mechanical Engineer at heart. Being at the heart of Silicon Valley though, it was hard to avoid the allure of tech.
In college, I remember the onslaught of new apps I encountered. I remember signing up for Venmo to pay friends and GroupMe for group projects. I remember using tools like Doodle and When2Meet to help with scheduling. DoorDash posters were all across campus as they were getting started, and Snapchat and Instagram dominated the social sphere. YikYak existed, briefly. I remember hearing about the drama at Theranos down the road. And I remember getting high with some members of the Stanford Bitcoin Mafia thinking it was stupid (turns out I was stupid)
After a summer working for an old-school aerospace company, I couldn’t see myself sitting in a traditional engineering company for the next 40 years, and I got caught up in the tech wave. By this point, “tech” was becoming mainstream, with the Google recruiting ad/movie The Internship and Silicon Valley (the TV show) hitting the screens. I dabbled with launching a startup with some friends. As I entered junior and senior year, I remember Lyft’s pink mustaches, and a friend taking an Uber home from my dorm every weekend. I finally experienced staying in an Airbnb for the first time for a graduation trip.
Tech Push Back and Pushing Forward
For the most part, it had felt like there was only optimism around tech. Folks were excited about the new wave of technology companies that were springing up and all the opportunities available. I joined a startup as a Data Scientist, deemed “The Sexiest Job of the 21st Century”. It felt like the only way tech was moving was up. And then, Donald Trump won the 2016 election.
From that point, social media like Facebook and Twitter (deservedly) received a lot criticism for helping Donald Trump win the presidency. #DeleteUber was trending after Uber was allegedly strikebreaking after Trump’s ban on immigration from several Muslim majority countries. Airbnb was accused of sparking gentrification in cities around the world.
And yet, the tech industry continued to grow. I saw the rise of FinTech companies like Affirm, Plaid, and Chime. Businesses serving other businesses became hot, like Slack, Figma, Asana, and more. While social apps had slowed down, apps like TikTok showed there were still worthy contenders. I purchased an Oculus Quest and was awed by wireless virtual reality. Bitcoin and crypto saw new highs, with a peak in 2017. While there was excitement around the crypto space, there was also suspicion, especially after the crash.
When Covid-19 hit, the tech industry was initially hit hard with several waves of layoffs. But as the world got used to social distancing, the industry bounced back thanks to a generous money supply and an online-only world. Zoom and Peloton stock hit crazy highs. The crypto hype grew even more with the rise of NFTs and Web3. Facebook rebranded to Meta, imagining an online-only virtual world. Things got a little crazy. I mean are you kidding me, Swimply?
As life returned to normal, the hangover hit. Tech stocks have cratered, and layoffs hit a peak in the summer. Still, there were some exciting advances in tech. Self-driving cars actually hit the streets, with Waymo and Cruise (fully self-driving) making their way around San Francisco. AI Art tools like DALL-E and Stable Diffusion have generated insane images, all from simple text prompts.
So, what’s next?
I’m no mind reader, it’s hard to predict the future. But reflecting on the last 20 years of tech, the industry has matured since I was a kid. The internet was still the wild west when I was in elementary school, but now feels mostly dominated by a few larger companies. While smartphones saw a Cambrian explosion of apps in the 2010s, I can’t imagine how hard it is for a new mobile app developer.
It seems like the lowest hanging fruit has been claimed, but opportunities in tech still abound in less obvious places. Industries with specialized knowledge like medicine, law, and hardware engineering may have problems worth solving with scalable software solutions (and several companies have cropped up to solve problems in these fields).
The advances in AI are especially exciting, but they need to be applied to solving real problems. While self-driving cars are cool, I’m bearish about the opportunity in the space. I think tools like Stable Diffusion offer a hint to the future, AI tools to help folks (from creatives to office workers) more efficiently create and do good work.
When it comes to blockchain and crypto… it’s harder for me to make a prediction there with so much noise. I understand the excitement around creating a brand new platform. Companies that can create and own a platform become invaluable, like Microsoft and Apple with PCs, Apple and Google with mobile, and Amazon (AWS) and Google (Cloud) with the internet. But while I still can’t see what problem they’re solving, it’s still worth keeping an eye on.
Looking back, the tech industry has come a far way from when I was a kid. While we may be entering a recessionary period, looking ahead, there are still more exciting places for it to go.